Downscaling population and urban land use for socio-economic scenarios in the UK

Abstract Projecting the distribution of population is critical in supporting analysis impacts and risks associated with climate change. In this paper, we apply a computational algorithm parameterised for UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (UK-SSP) narratives to create 1-km gridded urban land use projections end twenty-first century. Using unimodal neighbourhood function, model heterogeneity sprawl patterns. The maps are used as weights downscaled projections. We undertake uncertainty using 500 simulations varying parameter settings per UK-SSP. Results illustrate how can emerge from scenario conditions even when numbers decline, irrespective socio-economic wellbeing. To avoid negative environmental externalities uncontrolled sprawl, such UK-SSP5 UK-SSP3, planning policies will be vital. Uncertainties about future development higher rural areas than areas. This has an effect on competition influences confidence broader system